I don’t know that too many people would’ve picked a Knicks-Spurs NBA Finals matchup way back in October of last year. 

But here we are. And I think it will be a great series.

Here are the first few bets that I’m looking at for this NBA Finals showdown.

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Victor Wembanyama

Could Victor Wembanyama win NBA Finals MVP (Getty Images)?

I’m picking the Spurs to win the NBA Finals, and it’s cheaper to take Wemby to win the MVP over the Spurs’ series price. San Antonio will not win the championship if Wemby isn’t on his A-game, so this wager for me feels right.

Wemby is averaging 23 points, 11 boards and three assists during the playoffs, but his presence on the court feels much greater than his stats. His defensive aura in the paint dissuades opposing players from attempting shots at the basket. His long wingspan affects 3-point shooters when he’s contesting. Look what he did to Chet Holmgren last series. 

Wemby is going to play well against the Knicks and the Spurs will win because of him.

PICK: Victor Wembanyama (-170) to win NBA Finals MVP

Spurs Win Series By -1.5 

Stephon Castle could be integral to the Spurs winning the NBA championship (Getty Images).

This wager will win if the Spurs win the series in four, five or six games. Winning in five or six seems most likely.

Every team the Spurs face has had an issue guarding Wemby and the Knicks are no different. 

OG Anunoby will get the first chance to guard him, and he’s fared well in the past. But after him, the Knicks don’t have great options if Mitchell Robinson’s hand doesn’t recover well from surgery. Josh Hart will be little more than pesky as a defender and Karl-Anthony Towns will foul out immediately if he’s on Wemby. 

New York allowed plenty of scoring opportunities for the Cavaliers last series and, simply put, the Cavs just missed their shots. San Antonio has shown more ability to score when left open than the Knicks’ other opponents.

Also, I’m concerned about the Knicks’ offense. 

I hate to wager against Jalen Brunson because he’s a baller and I respect his game so much, but this series feels particularly tough for him. The Spurs will put Stephon Castle on him and, after that, can rotate plenty of young, athletic long defenders into Brunson’s orbit. 

Brunson likes to create towards the basket and with Wemby patrolling the middle of the paint, that will feel difficult. The Spurs have length at the wing to contest all the Knicks’ offensive weapons. Additionally, New York’s bench isn’t as deep as the Spurs’. Do we also expect Landry Shamet to shoot over 90% from 3 in the finals like he did in the Eastern Conference finals? Does Mikal Bridges shoot over 60% for another 10 straight games? 

New York’s offense feels like regression is coming this series. I like the Spurs to win by at least two games.

PICK: Spurs (+115) to win series by more than 1.5 games

Karl Anthony Towns Leading Rebounder +150

No. 32 Karl-Anthony Towns could be a good bet to lead the NBA Finals in rebounds this year (Getty Images).

Towns is a fantastic rebounder. He averaged nearly 12 rebounds per game in the regular season and is just over 11 in the playoffs. He’d have more rebounds if he played more than 20 minutes in a handful of New York blowout wins this postseason. 

KAT is unlikely to guard Wemby when the Knicks are on defense, which allows him more freedom to grab defensive rebounds. Obviously, the biggest hurdle for this wager to hit is Wemby’s rebounding ability, which declined by the game last series. He had 24 in the first double-overtime game. Then 17 in Game 2, followed by five straight games of under 10 boards. 

The longer the series went on, the more the Thunder were able to move Wemby further away from the basket, and he was winded more often. 

Give me KAT to have the most rebounds in the series.

PICK: Karl Anthony Towns (+150) NBA Finals leading rebounder