To win an NBA title, a team has to be fully equipped. More than ever, it requires roster depth, versatility, and lineups that can adapt on both offense and defense to counter opponents’ adjustments. Role players capable of providing floor spacing and offensive rhythm are also essential.

On top of that, health is crucial, because no team can realistically compete for a title with a couple of key players sidelined. Making predictions is therefore complex, even though the so-called “Phil Jackson Rule” can offer some useful guidance at this stage of the season.

The Phil Jackson Rule

The Phil Jackson Rule, also known as the “40-20 rule,” states that it is highly unlikely for a team to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy if it does not reach its 40th win before suffering its 20th loss.

The numbers back it up: since the three-point line was introduced, only four teams have won the title while violating this rule, including the 2021 Milwaukee Bucks during a shortened season. Last year the Indiana Pacers came very close, reaching their 40th win after 29 losses and falling just one Game 7 away from the Finals.

Applying the rule to the 2025-26 season, three teams currently meet the criteria: one in the East and two in the West – the Detroit Pistons, Oklahoma City Thunder, and San Antonio Spurs. The Boston Celtics, despite holding a 41–20 record, lost their 20th game before winning their 40th and therefore miss the cutoff by the slimmest of margins.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder looked nearly unstoppable early on, but a dip in December tempered expectations. Still, they remain the favorite in the Western Conference, holding the best record in the league.

With Nikola Topic back and contributions from Jalen Williams (J-Dub) and Jared McCain, OKC can rotate twelve reliable players – a luxury few contenders can match. The centerpiece is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, in the race for his second consecutive MVP, supported by a deep rotation and strong tactical versatility.

Detroit Pistons

Detroit has surprisingly built a deep rotation despite losing Jaden Ivey and Malik Beasley. Cade Cunningham leads a solid defensive system filled with effective role players.

Emerging contributors such as Daniss Jenkins, Paul Reed, and Javonte Green have earned spots in the rotation, though questions remain about whether they can be just as effective in the postseason. A reliable high-volume scorer could complete the roster and turn Detroit into an almost perfect contender.

San Antonio Spurs

Led by Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs combine depth, versatility, and a dominant interior presence. Young talents like Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper are developing quickly, while Wembanyama himself still has room to improve in his playmaking reads.

The main concern remains limited playoff experience, although veterans like Luke Kornet, Harrison Barnes, and the versatile De’Aaron Fox help mitigate that factor.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics, despite narrowly missing the Phil Jackson Rule cutoff, can still aim high. The availability of Jayson Tatum is crucial, as is the contribution from Nikola Vucevic, Derrick White, and Jaylen Brown.

Despite some gaps in the rotation and on defense, the team’s strong identity makes them a dangerous title contender, even if slightly behind the Thunder, Pistons, and Spurs.

What About the Other Contenders?

Other teams such as the Denver Nuggets, New York Knicks, and Cleveland Cavaliers have talent and depth, but injuries or regular-season record issues limit their chances.

Teams like the Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, and Toronto Raptors face structural challenges or simple bad luck, while the Minnesota Timberwolves could benefit from a favorable playoff matchup. According to the Phil Jackson Rule, however, none of these teams should win the title – meaning any surprise champion would be significant.