Madrid short-priced favourites as Vinícius ban bites

Mourinho’s side host Sevilla at the Bernabéu tonight with a perfect home record, but a suspended star and a shaky defence leave room for a goal at both ends.

Real Madrid welcome Sevilla to the Santiago Bernabéu this evening (kick-off 23:00 UAE, 20:00 UK, 21:00 CEST) as heavy favourites. Bookmakers have them at around 1.20 to 1.26, with the draw near 6.90 and Sevilla out at 12.60 or so. Statistical models give Madrid roughly a 78% chance of victory, against 13% for a draw and 8% for the visitors.

Madrid’s home form is the headline

Jose Mourinho’s side sit fourth in La Liga on 18 points from eight games, but their home form has been flawless. They have won all four league matches at the Bernabéu, beating Real Sociedad 4-1, Málaga 4-0, Rayo Vallecano 4-1 and Villarreal 1-0, scoring 13 and conceding two.

Away from home it has been shakier, with defeats at Betis (1-0) and Atlético Madrid (2-1). They arrive on the back of a comeback win in Rome in midweek, which will have lifted spirits.

Goals have been a feature of their games. Six of their eight league matches have produced three or more goals, and five have seen both sides score.

Sevilla: dangerous, but leaky

Luis García Plaza’s Sevilla are fifth on 14 points (four wins, two draws, two defeats) and have scored in every league game this season. They have also conceded in six of their eight, including three apiece in a 3-1 loss to Atlético, a 3-1 loss to Barcelona and a 3-3 draw at Levante. Both of their meetings with the league’s top sides have ended in 3-1 defeats.

Their last outing was that 3-3 draw at Levante, which showed their attacking threat as well as their defensive problems.

Team news

Madrid are without Vinícius Júnior, who starts a four-match league suspension. Rodrygo, Ferland Mendy and Raúl Asencio are also out. Éder Militão’s status is unclear, with some reports ruling him out and others suggesting he could return to the matchday squad after hamstring surgery. Federico Valverde has also been tipped for a late fitness check.

Predicted Madrid XI (4-2-3-1): Courtois; Dumfries, Huijsen, Konaté, Cucurella; Tchouaméni, Valverde; Güler, Bellingham, Diomande; Mbappé.

Yan Diomande is expected to take Vinícius’s place on the left, and Arda Güler is tipped to start on the right.

Sevilla are missing Marcão, Jon Guridi and Miguel Sierra through injury, plus the suspended Isaac Romero. Sierra’s absence weakens their right side, which Diomande and Cucurella are likely to target.

Predicted Sevilla XI (4-2-3-1): Vlachodimos; Iglesias, Castrín, Salas, Suazo; Agoumé, Kochorashvili; Ejuke, Fofana, Correia; Ure.

Betting angles

Madrid to win and over 2.5 goals is the pick of the markets. It is available at around 1.55, and Madrid’s home games and overall goal record support it.

Madrid -1 Asian handicap offers a better price than the 1.20 moneyline. Three of their four home wins have come by three goals or more, though a narrow win like the Villarreal game would leave the bet short.

Mbappé anytime scorer fits a match where Madrid should dominate the final third, though the price is likely to be short.

Sevilla to score is the value-leaning side bet. They have netted in every league game, and Madrid have conceded in five of their eight.

Steer clear of the straight Madrid win at about 1.20, and avoid win-to-nil given Sevilla’s scoring record.

Match Betting Prediction

Real Madrid 3-1 Sevilla

Odds are indicative and taken from a limited number of bookmakers, so shop around before staking. 18+. Gamble responsibly.