At first glance, this is a series full of uncertainties, difficult to decode in advance. Philadelphia would need the presence (and scoring) of the not-always-mobile Joel Embiid, but his recovery timeline remains unclear after undergoing appendicitis surgery.

On the other side, all eyes are on Jayson Tatum, who returned less than a year after tearing his Achilles tendon in last year’s playoffs and showed improving form down the stretch of the season. The challenge will be translating that form into the postseason, with its physicality and elevated pace.

That said, a healthy Sixers team – even without Embiid – brings more experience and solidity than Charlotte would have offered against the Boston Celtics.

Key themes of the Celtics-76ers series

Unreliable head-to-head matchups?

The Sixers faced Boston Celtics in the first three weeks of the season, playing three tough games and winning two, despite Embiid not always being available or at full strength.

But the Celtics, in addition to missing JT, were still adjusting to Mazzulla’s offense, which took time for several role players to fully absorb before emerging as consistent contributors later in the season.

As a result, those early matchups may not be entirely reliable. Still, looking at all four meetings, Philadelphia’s defense did manage to slow down Boston’s ball movement, even without shooting particularly well offensively, by leveraging strong perimeter defense. That will remain a key factor.

The role of George and Oubre

From a perimeter defense standpoint, the question is whether a resurgent Paul George can use his experience on that end of the floor. With Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to contain, limiting their impact is essential to disrupting Boston’s offense.

He and Kelly Oubre Jr. will likely be tasked with guarding the Celtics’ top players, while rookie VJ Edgecombe must deliver at his best on the perimeter, as he did in the Play-In win over Orlando.

Paradoxically, Edgecombe’s maturity as a rookie is less of a concern than the defensive consistency and mindset of George and Oubre. And that could be an issue.

Boston’s group of newcomers

Relying on Scheierman, Walsh, Gonzales, Garza, and Queta remains the main question surrounding the Celtics, especially in the context of a deep playoff run. That said, this group has proven to be a perfect fit within Mazzulla’s system, performing at a high level throughout the season.

In particular, Neemias Queta has undergone impressive development, dominating the boards and showing offensive effectiveness in the paint. Physically, he is well-suited for a battle against Adem Bona and Andre Drummond, who would be his primary matchups if Embiid remains sidelined.

However, if Joel Embiid is able to play and stay in the series, Queta could be forced out of the rotation, and rebounding might become a problem for Boston. The Celtics lack true size in the frontcourt, even though Tatum, Brown, and especially Derrick White can all contribute on both ends of the glass.

Celtics-76ers prediction: Boston favored, but never say never…

If we imagine a scenario where Embiid is in form and Tatum is not, the series could come down to the next-best options: Tyrese Maxey and Jaylen Brown. And it could be competitive.

An upset seems unlikely, although Philadelphia’s elite backcourt has the offensive talent to push things in that direction – so it can’t be ruled out entirely.

Still, based on how the matchup looks and Boston’s overall structure – built on strong offensive and defensive principles implemented by coach Joe Mazzulla and executed on the floor by the trio of White, Brown, and Tatum – it’s hard not to lean toward the Celtics.

At worst, in six games. More realistically, in five.